I, Too, Have a Dream

My family moved from upstate New York to Atlanta, Georgia about a year ago. In Atlanta I am a fish out of water. Dreams of returning north sustain me through many summer days when the Code Red Air Quality Alerts mean I must confine a daily walk to the early morning—or else risk a smog-induced headache and the infusion of a nasty chemical cocktail into the virgin lungs of my 2-year-old son.

New England, like every region of our country, is special for its people, politics, and culture. But its uniqueness lies largely in its climate. The intense Nor'easters, the miracle of maple syrup, the crunch of cross-country skis gliding beneath the drooping boughs of hemlock trees, all evoke my dream of returning to my place of birth, New England. But there's a nightmare scenario, too. It stems from the predictions scientists are making about changes in New England's climate resulting from global warming.

The New England Regional Climate Assessment of Potential Climate Variability and Change (NERA) —the most authoritative piece of science done around global warming issues in the Northeast to date— uses two respected climate models to predict New England's climate. Taken together, they indicate that the area will likely see a 6-10° F increase in annual minimum temperatures over the next century. The 6° increase predicted by the more conservative model would translate to a climate in Boston resembling that of Richmond, Virginia. And the second, equally respected model, forecasting the 10° increase, in effect predicts that Boston's climate will feel more like my current abode…Atlanta, Georgia.

If, or when, the climate in New England begins to resemble Atlanta's, it will be the culmination of a long, sad series of losses. Perhaps the hemlocks will be gone—done in by the dual might of warmer temperatures and the woolly adelgid that is quietly consuming their dark green fringes. Possibly the sugar maples and their syrup will have evaporated. And then there's the fish—flounder, for one, thrive in cold water and they are already succumbing to fishing pressure and warming temperatures. Yet the NERA report is optimistic. There are "win-win" tactics that minimize the chances of warming, reduce the adverse impacts, and all the while promote vibrant new economic growth and policies.

In assessing both the bad and the good news put forward in the NERA, I have developed a new dream: As a grandmother, I dwell in New England. Its climate and natural heritage are changed. But its people, politics, and culture have preserved the region’s integrity. Because people responded to—rather than ignored—these dire predictions, New Englanders are not fish out of water, adapting and adjusting as best they can. No; they met the challenge early. Forests dedicated to sopping up carbon dioxide sprawl across New England like the urban sprawl I remember from my life in Atlanta. Every power plant in the region, and across the country, now operates so efficiently and with so fewer fossil fuels that air pollution has been radically curbed. And no matter what their color, almost every car I see on the highway is "green." Rather than turning into another Atlanta, with its sprawl, heat, and smog, New England found its way to a better existence.

And so the consequences of those once dire predictions are less severe—a few hemlock stands remain and some syrup drips through taps in northern Maine. Fish populations are booming, though it's not clear whether flounder will pull through. Every now and again, I can still find snow to ski. And I can take my granddaughter for a walk on the Boston Commons without worrying about smog.

But the best part of my dream is the exuberance generated by personal satisfaction and economic fulfillment that has infused the community that is New England. In their early, measured, and lucid response to the nightmare, they changed its outcome. And others all over the world saw, and did the same.

Rachel Clark is a freelance science and environment writer, concluding her stay in Atlanta. As this column goes to press, her family is planning a move to northern Idaho.